Blood Urea Nitrogen as a Predictor of Severe Acute Pancreatitis Based on the Revised Atlanta Criteria: Timing of Measurement and Cutoff Points

Background and Aims. This study evaluated the prognostic accuracy of BUN for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and in-hospital mortality (IHM) in terms of the best timing for BUN measurement and the optimal BUN cutoff points. Methods. BUN determinants at the time of admission and 24 hrs after hospital admission were recorded and analyzed statistically. The ability of BUN in predicting the SAP and the occurrence of IHM were assessed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results. For SAP, AUC of BUN at admission and 24 hrs after hospital admission was 0.75 and 0.80, respectively. For IHM in acute pancreatitis, it was 0.86 at admission and 0.84 after 24 hrs of hospital admission, respectively. The optimal cutoff point of BUN 24 hrs after hospital admission for SAP and at admission for IHM was 8.3 mmol/L and 13.3 mmol/L, respectively. Conclusion. BUN determination after 24 hrs of hospital admission has high accuracy for prediction of SAP while BUN at initial admission has high accuracy for prediction of IHM.